2019 NFL News and Notes
Week 13 News and Notes
Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers, (1:00 ET.)
The last time Cleveland laid points in Pittsburgh was in week 1 way back in 1989 when they were favored by 2. They won that game, (51-0.) Is this déjà vu once again because 30 years later the Browns are listed as 2 and 2.5-point favorites with the “VIG” at -105. Cleveland’s last win at Heinz Field, (at +7,) was in week 13 back in 2003, as they woodshed whipped the “Steel Curtain,” (33-13.)
Since that (51-0,) shut-out the Browns have gone 02-24 in 26 games including 0-15 straight up in their last 15 contests losing by an average of -12.9 PPG.
In their most recent meeting at Cleveland in week 11, the Browns were favored by 3 points and won, (21-07.) Pittsburgh lost its top two play makers in the second quarter as running back James Conner (shoulder) and wide receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster (concussion) suffered injuries and didn’t return. Mason Rudolph threw four interceptions in that game and his poor play last week vs. the Bengals resulted in Mike Tomlin benching him in favor of Devlin Hodges. Is Hodges an upgrade vs. Rudolph? Well, Rudolph has a season long quarterback rating of 33 while Hodges, with very limited playing time, has a QBR of 64.
Since the 2000 season the Steelers are 12-04-01 ATS as an underdog.
Cleveland is 10-22 ATS after a win by 14 or more points including 0-7 ATS in their last seven.
Pittsburgh is 29-14 ATS when revenging a loss when the team scored less than 14 points.
The Browns are 06-21-02 ATS in their next game when playing a team with a winning record.
The Steelers are 12-03-01 ATS in their next game after rushing for 150 or more yards in their previous contest.
For a system on this game go to the home page and click onto the NFL systems link.
Patriots at Eagles
New England is 15-03 ATS vs. poor passing defenses, (teams that are allowing 235 or more passing yards per game,) the past three seasons.
The Patriots are allowing only 10.9 points per game as well as the fewest yards per game (249.3.) New England is also first in interceptions (19), second in passing yards allowed (150.2) and fourth in sacks (32.)
The Patriots’ biggest weakness is defending the run as they’ve allowed 135 or more yards in four of their last six games.
Philadelphia’s strength is running the ball, Jordan Howard and Miles Sanders have a combined for 861 yards rushing.
Belichick is deadly when off a loss and that loss is compounded with extra rest when off a bye.
Jaguars at Colts
QB to be…or not QB, that is the question! Nick Foles returns for the Jaguars and apparently Jacoby Brissett will also be under center today for the Colts. The Colts are off back-to-back losses this season, can they win/cover this small number in a critical division game?
Adam Vinatieri has missed six extra points and five field goals this season. In a perceived tight contest I cannot back the host team.
Bills at Dolphins
From game nine out, play on underdogs, (including pick,) that are poor rushing teams, averaging 3.5 or less YPR vs. a poor rushing defense that allows 4.5 or more YPR, after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in three straight games. This system is 27-06 = 82% ATS since 1983.
Falcons at Panthers
Play against road favorites after an upset win by 14 or more points when they’re now an underdog vs. an opponent off a road loss. This system is 48-21 = 69.6% ATS since 1983 when backing the host team.
Cardinals at 49ers
This past Monday vs. the Seahawks the 49ers had season lows in yards rushing (87) and yards per attempt passing (4.7.) Tight end George Kittle was out with an injury and he won’t be in the line-up today. Emmanuel Sanders left with injured ribs in the first quarter. To be sure, they are difference makers.
Key injuries to the 49ers has seen this line drop to -10/-10.5. San Francisco scored 10 points on the opening two drives when Sanders was healthy and then just six more points on offense for the rest of the game. Their woes were not due to Kittle and Sanders as Garoppolo did not have one of his better games. Top opinion of the Cardinals getting +10.5..
10 NFL News and Notes
by Greg Dempson
Seahawks at the 49ers
Since 1980, undefeated Monday night home teams are 42-17-03 ATS regardless of the line. Having stated that, did you know that Russell Wilson is 24-09-02 ATS as an underdog as well as 8-0 ATS in his most recent eight contests. Wilson’s QB rating is 118.2 and he tossed 22 touchdowns vs. one interception.
Since their last meeting in 2012, Seattle is 12-02 straight up and 11-03 ATS.
Since December of 2012 the Seahawks are 11-02 ATS in prime time stand-alone night games.
A key to this game?
Linebacker Kwon Alexander is gone for the season with a torn left pectoral muscle. Alexander had 34 tackles, one forced fumble, one interception and four pass breakups and was considered the heart and soul of the defense. Rookie Dre Greenlaw will replace him.
Seattle rushed for 145 yards against Tampa Bay last week, led by 105 yards from Chris Carson, the first rusher to top 100 yards this year against the Buccaneers. When Carson is churning out yards, it creates more opportunity for Wilson to work off play-action. San Francisco is first in the NFL at stopping the pass but just 14th against the run. Getting Carson and backup Rashaad Penny going on the ground will be crucial for the Seahawks to stay away from troubling down and distance situations.
The Kicking Game
Jason Myers missed a pair of field goals and an extra point last week against Tampa Bay. He was wide left from 47 yards, wide right on the last play of regulation from 40 yards and hit the upright with one of his PAT’S. Myers is just 3 of 8 from 40 or more yards this season.
The 49ers also have questions in their kicking game after Robbie Gould injured his quadriceps in practice Tuesday. The team signed Chase McLaughlin in case Gould can't play.
In the second half of the season, play against a home team that’s winning 75% or more of their games when off a road win vs. a division rival. This system is 23-05 = 82% ATS the past 10 seasons as well as 11-01 ATS the past five seasons, 6-0 in the most recent three seasons.
Panthers at Packers
In last week’s loss to the Chargers Aaron Rodgers was sacked three times, and the Green Bay Packers' offense had its most anaemic performance under coach Matt LaFleur in a 26-11 loss.
These Conference foes last met on December 17, 2017 in Carolina and the Panthers at -3 won and covered, (31-24.) Christian McCaffrey had 136 yards in that meeting as well as one touchdown.
Carolina is expected to get defensive end Mario Addison (6.5 sacks) back this week after he missed last Sunday's game following the fatal shooting of his brother. The Panthers lead the league in sacks this season with 34.
I anticipate a high scoring game supported by the following system
After winning three out of their last four games play the OVER when playing against an opponent that’s won four out of their last five games. This system is 4-0 to the OVER this season as well as 53-20 = 73% to the over the past five seasons.
LA Rams at Steelers
After a game when a team committed one or less turnovers, play against that opponent when they are favorites of 3.5 to 10 points and playing against an opponent after four consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better. This system is 27-07 = 79% ATS since 1983.
Vikings at Cowboys
Clients only as this game is a BEST BET.
Seahawks at SF 49ers
Week 9, NFL News and Notes
by Greg Dempson
Redskins at Bills
It's safe to say that Buffalo isn't as good as advertised as the Bills' five wins have come against opponents with a combined record of 07-31. Last weekend Buffalo was taken out to the woodshed in a (31-13,) loss at home vs. Philadelphia. The team had a season low 253 yards and managed only two first downs in its final six possessions. The usually stout defense gave up a season-worst 218 yards rushing, including 156 in the second half.
Washington will be without Case Keenum so rookie Dwayne Haskins gets the start. In two relief appearances Haskins has gone 12 of 22 for 140 yards, tossing four interceptions.
Since Bill Callahan took over after the firing of Jay Gruden, Washington has run the ball considerably more. Adrian Peterson moved into sixth place with 13,701 yards, after passing Jerome Bettis and LaDainian Tomlinson last week.
Buffalo also has a more than capable rusher in Frank Gore who has 15,170 yards and is ranked fourth on the list, and 99 yards shy of matching Barry Sanders.
The Bills are 10.5 point home favorites with the total as low as 36.5 at some books so they're suggesting that points will be hard to come by for Washington. I will pass on this game, small lean to the road dog.
Colts at Steelers
In progress, check back later tonight.The last time the Colts won in Pittsburgh was back in 2008, can they win in Pittsburgh today? THe Steelers are without their franchise quarterback since week one and they might be without running back James Conner. Last week against the Dolphins, he rushed for 145 yards on 23 carries. That last carry came at a cost as he injured his shoulder and his status against the Colts is uncertain at best. If he can't go, Jaylen Samuels will take over in the backfield. Samuels hasn't played since undergoing knee surgery on Oct. 7. That is the key to this game.
All of the Colts' games have been decided by 7 or less points and if it comes down to their place kicker, Adam Vinatieri, things could get interesting as he is no longer automatic having missed numerous field goals and extra points this season.
This line has moved from Indianapolis being favored by 1.5 or 1 point to pick with Pittsburgh -1 and -115 on the money line.
After a shaky first quarter last week, Mason Rudolph fared much better in the teams' comeback win vs. Miami.
If Conner does play Pittsburgh should win this game.
Lions at Raiders
This game is a 4 STAR BEST BET selection by me.
Buccaneers at Seahawks
Seattle opened as a 6.5 point road dog and that line now favors the Seahawks by -5 points @ -105 at Bookmaker. The Seahawks have won two home games by a single point while losing to the Saints and Ravens, so that would be one reason why the line has been bet down 1.5 points. Seattle owns only one win over a team with a winning record. Five of its six wins are by one score, with a 17-point win at Arizona its only comfortable victory. The cross-country trip is the end of a long stretch away from home for the Bucs. Tampa Bay has lost three straight and hasn't played a game in its own stadium since Week 3. Turnovers continue to be a nagging problem as the team had seven turnovers in their Week 6 loss to Carolina and had four last week in a 27-23 loss at Tennessee.
Veteran center Justin Britt is out for the season with a torn ACL in his knee. Joey Hunt will make his third career start at center and his task will be significant trying to make protection calls while handling the defensive line duo of Ndamukong Suh and Vita Vea. Suh and Vea are big reasons why Tampa Bay has the best run defense in the league giving up just 68.6 yards per game.
I have an opinion on the underdog Buccaneers in this contest.
Browns at Broncos
In progress Baker Mayfield has one record this season he isn't proud of, he's tied for the league lead with 12 interceptions while throwing only six touchdowns. At 2-5 after seven games the Browns just haven't jelled. A trip to the "Mile High City" may or may not work in their favor as Denver, (2-6,) will be without Joe Flacco this weekend, (neck injury.) Denver's offense remains dysfunctional behind a penalty-plagued offensive line and with Flacco sidelined, they don't have a single quarterback on their roster who has taken a NFL snap. Denver has given up 26 sacks in eight games and former Arkansas quarterback Brandon Allen.
The Browns lead the league in penalties at 60 entering week 9, they are on pace to set yet another undesirable record as the most penalized team.
This line has moved significantly with Cleveland now favored by 4 after opening as a short road dog. No play for me here, lean to the dog at +4 and under 39.
Packers at Chargers
This game is a 4 STAR BEST BET by me.
Patriots at Ravens
Lamar Jackson leads the NFL with a 6.94 yards per carry average and ranks tenth with 576 yards rushing. He is the only quarterback in NFL history to pass for at least 1,600 yards and run for 500 through the first seven games of a season. Bill Belichick's coaching ability has the Patriots at 21-0 when the team is playing against first or second year quarterbacks.
New England is 11-05 ATS as a non division favorite while Baltimore is 9-2 after a bye under Harbaugh, who took over in 2008. The early money on this game has moved the line from -4 down to -3 for the road team. The Ravens have the special teams edge in this game. I say it's tough to go against a Belichick coached team.
Week 8 NFL News and Notes
Here are seven of the 13 games for this weekend. To view the data on all the remaining games please visit sportsgamingjournal.com. There is also an article with an invested wager on the Raiders and Texans game at their site.
Cardinals at Saints
Kyler Murray has four touchdowns and zero interceptions in his past three games, (albeit vs. three sad sack teams such as the Giants Falcons and Bengals.) In his first four games he had five touchdowns and four interceptions home vs. the Seahawks, a loss, (27-10,) hosting the Panthers, (38-20 loss,) as well as a loss at the Ravens, (23-17.) In week one, at home, the Cards tied the Lions, (27-27.)
The Cardinals are 5-1 ATS this season as an underdog. I did not wager on this game.
Chargers at Bears
Phillip Rivers is 30-14-01 ATS as a road underdog of 3 or more points including 6-3-2 ATS since the team moved to Los Angeles.
The Bears are 13-27 ATS when off an upset loss as a home favorite.
The Chargers are 21-08 ATS in road games after three or more consecutive losses.
After a game where a team forced no turnovers, (applies to the Bears,) play against said team when they’re a favorite of -3.5 to 10 points. The past five seasons by betting against the Bears you would have a success rate of 65-33 = 66% ATS.
Giants at Lions
This is another game that I stayed away from due to the Giants starting a rookie quarterback in a road dome game.
Head coach Matt Patricia is 5-0 ATS vs. teams with a straight up losing record plus the Lions are 22-11-02 ATS vs. teams with a losing record dating back to 2004.
However here is a system that supports a play on the Giants and it’s 4-0 ATS the past three seasons, 9-0 ATS the past five seasons as well as 10-05 the past 10 years. After covering the spread in four out of their last five games, play against all home favorites with a straight up winning percentage of between 40% to 49% on the season. Dating back to 1983, by playing against the Lions your success rate is 45-18 = 71% ATS.
Jets at Jaguars
If you’re considering a wager on the Jaguars, confirm their starting line-up as defensive tackle Marcell Dareus had core muscle surgery Thursday in Philadelphia and will be sidelined at least a month, plus linebackers Najee Goode (toe) and Leon Jacobs (hamstring) are unlikely to play as well as Quincey Williams, (hamstring) and linebacker D.J. Alexander (foot), who was placed on injured reserve earlier this week.
The Jets also have numerous injuries with the major one being C. J. Mosley is downgraded to doubtful, (groin injury.)
If the Jets can exploit this depleted Jaguars team, Le’Veon Bell could have a big day.
That might their only change to keep this game close as their offensive line is indeed offensive and Campbell could have a field day against Sam Darnold. The Jets have allowed 26 sacks this season and when under duress, (AKA, Sam’s seeing ghosts,) Darnold has nine career picks, tied for the most the past two seasons.
Jets coach Gase is 01-16 straight up and 04-13 ATS when the team he’s coaching is an underdog of 5 or more points.
Jaguars coach Marrone is 1-8 ATS after the teams have allowed 75 or less rushing yards in their last game.
The Jets are 0-11 ATS as a non-division road dog of 4+ points when playing against a team that’s off a straight up and ATS victory.
I won’t invest on this game, too many question marks!
Packers at Chiefs
Patrick Mahomes practiced but won’t start, however the Chiefs might have left tackle Eric Fisher (groin surgery), left guard Andrew Wylie (ankle sprain) and wide receiver Sammy Watkins (strained hamstring) back to help whoever starts at quarterback. They all practiced in some capacity this week, though they also remained on the official injury report.
Will wide receiver Devante Adams return this week? Head coach Matt LaFluer says that is probably a game time decision.
The Chiefs are 34-17 ATS in non-conference home games.
In his last 19 games as a road favorite Aaron Rodgers is 10-09 ATS with the average score in this 19 games very tight, 24.4 vs. 23.7 for the Packers.
Head coach Andy Reid/Team is 15-08 ATS inn the regular season when he has at least 10 days between games.
Play on non-conference underdogs including pick after going under the total by 35 or more combined points in their last three games. This system is 23-04 = 85% ATS the past 10 seasons as well as 8-0 the past three seasons and 11-0 the previous 10 seasons.
Play against favorites of -3.5 to -10 points that average 3.5 to 4.5 rushing yards per game vs. a team that allows 4.5 or more yards per rush after gaining 75 or less rushing yards in their last game. This system is 73-36 = 67% ATS since 1983.
Raiders at Texans
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Dolphins at Steelers
This data will be posted at sportsgamingjournal.com.