2024 NFL/COLLEGE article for FRI. NOV 29

Key numbers when betting totals, (plus Iowa hosting Nebraska)

The most important number when you're betting on totals is the number that you bet into.Last night the Dolphins/Packers total opened at 47.5 points. but weather and under steam moved that O/U down to 44.5 points.If you wee late to the party you lost. If I'm investing in an under I will always bet it early, (with one exception.) that's Monday Night Football. Traditionally favorites and overs are the norm for recreational gamblers, especially on Monday night football. So, what's the advantage to betting an under early? Injuries to key starters will affect the total, plus weather is another "under" mover. 

Two of Thursday's games landed on exactly 47 points. The Cowboys won, (27-20,) and the Packers won, with a final score of (30-17.) When reviewing final land on scores of exactly 47 points since 2016, this has occurred 29 times. Scores of (26-21,) (24-23,) (30-17,) (34-13,) as well as (40-07) have combined final scores of only 21 times. Final scores combined numbers such as 40, 41, 43 ane of importance. Recently 44 is the most frequent combined final score. 

Nebraska at Iowa, (7:30 ET)

Nebraska's quarterback Dylan Raiola has thrown two touchdowns vs. six interceptions when they're on the road averaging only 5.9 yards per completion. The Huskers only road win this season was at Purdue on 09/28, (28-10.). Meanwhile, Iowa is 7-4 with three of those four losses occurring on the road. The only team to beat Iowa at home was Iowa State. Last week the Hawkeyes injuries placed Jackson Stratton under center in their win at Maryland, (29-13.) To minimize quarterback risk Iowa ran the ball 58 times for 268 yards winning the time of possession. Stratton was 10 of 14 for 76 yards.

The Hawkeyes have won eight of their last nine games and this is a night contest, so the crowd should aid the Hawkeyes. Iowa is 20-02 straight up in November games and with a small line I'm comfortable with the host team getting the cover plus the Hawkeyes have a massive special teams edge.

Give me Iowa -3 points. (That line was available for my clients when I sent this investment out.)